Are we in a recession? With the global conflict pushing up oil and gasoline prices, it’s a question many people are already asking. But you don’t need to study the Sahm Rule, Business Confidence Index, or the Vicious Cycle Index to see how it’s affecting prices of basic necessities and goods. While ongoing conflicts are geographically distant, their impact is being felt far beyond those regions, including across Asia.

For one, nearly 90% of the region’s oil and gas supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been shut down since late February 2026. Less than two months later, countries across Asia — particularly ones vulnerable to supply shocks — are already dealing with the consequences.

In the Philippines, transport strikes and work-from-home policies from private corporations are just some of the effects of the national energy emergency declared by the President last March. In Thailand, government agencies have also adopted WFH policies, while raw material supply disruptions have led to – or nearly caused – some shortages in South Korea and Japan. China, meanwhile, has moved to cap fuel price hikes. In Hong Kong, prices of gasoline per liter have climbed to US$4.1, compared to Singapore’s US$2.55 (end of March figures). Across the region, governments are urging public and private offices, households, and individual citizens to conserve energy and raise air-conditioning temperatures, even amid intensifying summer heat.

Rising out of these challenges, ever so nonchalant and seeing the humor in every situation, Gen Zers and Millennials were quick to enter the chat with their own unique commentary, dubbing their content #RecessionCore.

Still, despite the economic slowdowns and broader spillover effects from the wars, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has yet to officially declare a global recession. Should the current situation persist, however, they warn that we may be edging closer to one. But we might not have to wait for their declaration, as people often begin to feel the warning signs in their daily lives.

From lipstick sales to skirt hemlines — and even the way people go on first dates — these unconventional “recession indicators” have been aligned with periods of economic decline. And over the decades, some experts have presented these alternative methods that are said to signal an incoming economic downturn.

The question now is whether they still hold true today.

Lipstick Index

Pocket-sized, usually inexpensive, and does wonders for our lips — lipstick has the uncanny ability to brighten up our days (and our faces) with just a couple of swipes. The perfect color can pull together a look, or a vivid lip color can instantly transform a bare face. The cherry on top is that they’re usually cheap, if you don’t go for luxury brands. So, what is the Lipstick Index?

In 2001, Leonard Lauder, chair of Estée Lauder, noted a spike in their company’s lipstick sales after the 9/11 attacks. While he popularized the term, it was first coined by Juliet Schor in 1998 when she described the theory in her book, “The Overspent American.”

During the Great Depression, cosmetic purchases increased, specifically among women buyers aged 18 to 40 years old. And research shows it wasn’t because they were seeking new partners or employment. It was simply because lipstick is a cheaper substitute compared to buying new clothes or other similarly expensive items.

But this isn’t just specifically for lipstick, although the cosmetic product does have a mood-boosting effect.

Other small luxury items have the same effect on people during times of hardship: coffee, movie tickets, and even snacks have given way to the “little treat culture.” It’s basically any item that can bring a sense of normalcy, joy, or momentary indulgence when the situation looks bleak.

Next time you’re browsing in the drugstore or going about your grocery shopping and feeling a bit guilty of wanting a lip gloss or a snack or two, don’t. As long as you’re not taking a sledgehammer to your budget, then we say get what keeps you sane and happy in challenging times.

Hemline Index

In 1926, economist George Taylor theorized that hemlines — of women’s skirts and dresses — rise and fall depending on the health of the economy. During times of supposed trouble, hemlines drop down to the floor, and when times are booming, you’ll see miniskirts abound.

To put this to the test, an Erasmus School of Economics study by Baardwijk and Franses in 2010 analyzed fashion trends from 1921, specifically based on issues of the French magazine L’Officiel.

In conclusion, they found that hemlines do get longer during poor economic times and shorten during times of prosperity. But it’s not as real-time, with a time lag of three years. So, while hemlines reflect the times (with a bit of a delay), they don’t predict recessions ahead of time.

The biggest examples that are often cited are the short flapper dresses popular in the 1920s (or the Roaring ‘20s), while during the Great Depression, floor-length dresses were en Vogue.

In more recent history, maxi dresses were all the rage in 2008, following the global financial crisis. During the pandemic, athleisure and lounge wear defined the era.

Dr. Dawnn Karen told InStyle, “We want to cover our bodies, wear comfy sweaters… We now have a lack of social interaction, so [fashion] can serve as a security blanket to quell the anxiety that we feel.”

Right now, fashion trends are pointing to more conservative fashion, meaning lower hemlines.

#RecessionCore has been trending since 2023, and this could be a holdover from uneven economic growth across the globe post-pandemic. This fashion aesthetic continues to persist to this day, with people leaning more towards practical and conservative fashion in 2026.

But some are rebelling against this very notion, being as maximalist as possible. The resurgence of Y2K fashion, for one, exemplifies this. Low-rise jeans and crop tops paired with brightly colored, eye-catching fabrics, maximalist jewelry, and even bolder and shinier makeup. It also highlights the comforting nature of nostalgia.

With millennials and Gen Xers at the peak of their corporate lives, returning to their childhood roots (even with fashion) has become one way of “raging against the machine.” So sport those low-rise jeans, platform heels, metallic eyeshadows, and be that OG bebot you truly are.

Recession Hair

Recession indicators aside, recent trends online have been pointing to being more practical and frugal. Deinfluencing, underconsumption core, mindful or conscious shopping, and anti-consumerism have populated our online vocabulary — and have actually influenced our lifestyles.

While the term “recession hair” became popular in 2009 (following the global financial crisis of 2008), a newer TikTok term has been making rounds since last year: recession blonde. Hair color aside, the trend simply means letting your natural hair grow instead of spending money on color touch-ups or hair color treatments.

Unlike the lipstick trend, which sees an increase in sales, hair treatments (which are often expensive) are seen as those luxuries that people often forego during uncertain times. This may also trickle down to other skin, face, and body treatments, such as facials, nails (beyond the basic manicure and pedicure), plastic surgery, etc.

Is this a sign of a struggling economy? Or just a fashion trend that matches well with conservative fashion? Maybe, maybe both. But if there’s a trend we’re grateful is on the rise, it’s not shaming your friends for having (and sticking to) a budget and actively encouraging financial mindfulness. It means you can show up to the next girl’s hangout with “recession hair” and there would be zero judgment from your friends — who doesn’t want that?

First Date Indicator

One narrative that’s been making waves (and fueling debates) is that people, particularly men, shouldn’t be dating if they’re not financially stable or if they don’t have the budget to go on dates. Women, it seems, are tired of splitting checks, planning dates (and shouldering them), and picking up the slack when it comes to dating.

What does this have to do with the recession? Well, some theorize that in times of prosperity, in-person first dates are par for the course. But during down times, people prefer to stick to meeting people online — and building that relationship virtually first before committing to something face-to-face.

Needless to say, online dating apps and having conversations on social media is vastly cheaper compared to a standard dinner-and-movie date. Men are vilified for low-effort dates and women are raising their standards — online dating, for now at least, seems like a low-risk middle ground where conversations propel things forward.

As global troubles continue to drive prices upwards, first dates — or dates and going out in general — are becoming less casual, impromptu plans and more like something you need to factor into your monthly budget spreadsheet.

Does this mean people on a budget can’t date? Not necessarily. Figure out their love language first. If they prefer Acts of Service, Quality Time, and Words of Affirmation, then what you need to focus on is showing up, being present, consistent, and attentive to their needs. For the most part, this won’t cost you a thing.

Recession or not, that will outlast and weather whatever happens with the economy.

Chat, Are We Cooked?

Whether we're heading into a recession or not, we likely won't find signs on your favorite lipstick shade running out, swiping left/right on dating apps, or growing out your natural hair. For one, you don’t have to be chronically online to see how your grocery bill has ballooned, or how high gasoline prices should be your sign to stay at home.

Humor and depressing world news aside, it never hurts to be practical, financially conscious, or financially stable. Gone are the days of being peer-pressured into spending more than you can afford. True friends will understand your budget and supportive partners will love your looks — even if you use press-on nails and pass on touch-up appointments. Moreover, fashion is subjective and will always reflect your inner diva. Whether the economy is booming or suffering, wear that dress, put on that lipstick, and grab that snack. Life is too short not to enjoy the little things.